Roller Coaster Ride
What's a tech-stock investor to do?
By James Hanback Jr.
MAY 1, 2000:
It was only a matter of time before the euphoria ended and reality
settled in for the long haul. Over the past few weeks--even the past few
months--we've watched helplessly as volatile technology stocks swept the
NASDAQ to dizzying record highs and dramatic, worrisome lows. No doubt,
investors in technology stocks and tech-heavy mutual funds have recently
felt like children on a see-saw that's pumping just a little too fast,
feeling the exhilarated head rush of the upward movement, followed only too
quickly by the stomach-twisting G-force of a big sell-off.
Announcements in the Justice Department v. Microsoft case--on top
of interest-rate hike worries, on top of inflation worries, and
announcements by several Internet-only companies that cash flow isn't so
hot--raked the NASDAQ and knocked around the already embattled Dow Jones
Industrial Average in a not-so-friendly way.
Some Internet companies fell below their IPOs, even with recent news
that one Internet company, America Online, made it into Fortune
magazine's big leagues. Others, like drkoop.com and peapod.com, had some
commentators wondering if they'll still be around by 2001.
The big questions that the media have been asking of their various
financial experts, though, is, "What does this mean? Have tech stocks had
their day?"
Some respond that the honeymoon with technology is over, and that
investors are beginning to realize that simply because a company is labeled
tech does not automatically make it a good investment. Others say that tech
stocks were overdue for a correction, and that more corrections could be on
the way. Still others say this is a temporary setback in the wake of the
Microsoft trial and general nervousness among investors about what's going
to happen to the software giant.
It may also be that investors are finally realizing that one can no
longer lump all tech stocks under one "technology investment" heading.
There are simply too many different types of technology industries, each
vastly different from the last. In spite of the cash-flow problems
Internet-only companies may be having, hardware and software companies are
making money (Sun Microsystems, one of Microsoft's arch-rivals, has been
one of the media darlings in that department recently), proof that not
every single tech stock on the market was dragged down with all the recent
selling.
So, what's a regular guy investor to do? Being Regular Guy Investor
myself, it's a question with which I've been wrestling. Although I've yet
to be the nervous type when it comes to my investments, I must admit that
the dizzying ups and downs have had me worried. I've sought out every
opinion I could find on the subject on the Net, and I've tuned in via
broadcast.com to local financial guru Dave Ramsey's show while at work. The
link to the broadcast.com feed can be found at Ramsey's site,
http://www.daveramsey.com.
I'm no guru. As I write this, the Dow, the NASDAQ, and the S&P have
dipped from bullish mornings to bearish afternoons and then back again.
"Stock Market Volatile," stated the article on Netscape's Netcenter page.
"[S]ome nervous investors retreated. Others looked for bargains. Analysts
say New Economy stocks aren't home free." Chances are that by the time you
read this article things could have turned around and back again,
especially after new announcements that the government may pursue a
Microsoft break-up, and that a Goldman Sachs analyst recently removed MSFT
from his list of recommended stocks.
Frustrating? Sure. But throughout these changes, I have been reminded of
a few things about investing, and more than a few things about the
Internet. Among them:
1) In spite of its reputation for pornography and its almost complete
shift of focus from the Information Age to the E-commerce Age, the Internet
is still an invaluable source of free insight and opinion on practically
any topic (although much of the time without expert guarantees, of
course).
2) Yes, it's been mainstreamed for a while now, but as a marketplace,
the Internet is still young. Why aren't Internet-only companies making
money hand over mouse? Those businesses can answer that better than I can,
although I must wonder if we all rushed too hard to get involved in this
Next Big Thing we call e-commerce. Yes, more people shopped online last
Christmas than the Christmas before, but e-shoppers still made up only a
fraction of the total holiday shopping numbers. The Internet may be ready
for the shoppers, but all the shoppers may not really be ready for the
Internet.
3) If you've got money to invest, and especially if it's invested in
ever-changing industries like technology, you should be aware that you're
not always going to receive bodacious 1990s bull-market-of-bull-markets
returns. In fact, you may even lose money sometimes, although mutual funds
are said to provide their best returns over extended periods of time (note
that mutual funds, for Regular Guy Investor, at least, seem to be
recommended over single stocks because of their automatic diversity and,
therefore, more stable performance).
So, again, what's Regular Guy Investor to do in these times of extreme
ups and downs? I think this one's just going to wait and see.

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