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Off-Year 1997 Elections Predict '98
Looking into the 1998 campaign crystal ball, I see republicans and Udall.
By Jack Moczinski
NOVEMBER 24, 1997:
Republicans swept the off-year elections three weeks ago. Among
the contested races were 250 mayoral seats, the Virginia and New
Jersey governors, a Staten Island, N.Y., congressional seat and
numerous propositions. Political pundits put a lot of merit in
the importance of these off-year races as an indication of who
will have success in the next election year. In 1991, a special
election put underdog Harris Wofford in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate
seat. At that time, that Democrat's surprise victory marked the
end of Bush's post-Gulf War afterglow and showed that he was vulnerable
coming into the 1992 presidential race. Here are some interesting
trends emerging from the 1997 elections:
1.) Irritant issues: With a good economy and no big problems to
face like war, recession or social upheaval, politicians are trying
to appeal to voters by bringing up so-called irritant issues.
In the New Jersey governor's race, it was the enormous car insurance
rates. In Virginia, it was the state's car tax. If I ran in New
Mexico in 1998, I would run against the recent PNM rate hikes
with the following slogan: Vote for the Polish Prince and Punish
PNM. I can feel it ... it's a winner!
2.) Incumbents win: Across the board, incumbents did very well
in 1997. Republican mayors were re-elected in un-Republican areas
such as Minneapolis and New York. After a scare from her Democratic
opponent, Christie Todd Whitman won re-election as governor of
New Jersey. Clearly, when voters have little to complain about,
incumbents will win.
3.) The money game: The National Democratic Party is broke and
up to its ears in debt. Although the Republican Congress tried
to put out the perception that the Democrats and the president
were rolling in the dough last election, in reality the Republicans
outspent the Democrats across the board. By throwing the money
issue on the Democrats with the Republican Congress fundraising
hearings, donations have dried up for the Dems while the GOP's
fundraising operation remains intact. The Republicans poured money
into the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races like so much
gravy, while employees at the Democratic National Committee headquarters
were looking in their couches for loose change. Republicans will
have a solid money advantage going into the 1998 elections.
This all bodes well for New Mexico Republicans. Their national
party boasts about dumping money into New Mexico in 1998. Gov.
Gary Johnson, Congressman Steve Schiff and Congressman Joe Skeen
might remain in office as long as they play it cool and ride the
wave of economic prosperity. The Democratic legislature, however,
does not look good. Voters understand that legislators are the
ones who address those petty, local, irritant issues. People's
financial situations are good, but they could still be angry about
the local crime problem or the broken stop sign on the corner.
They'll take out their frustrations on incumbent legislators.
In 1998, we could see a Republican State House.
Udall Positions Himself:
Recently, Attorney General Tom Udall sent a letter to the Democratic
faithful, letting them know that he is looking at running for
Congress in the 3rd Congressional District. The seat is currently
held by Republican Bill Redmond and formerly held by U.N. Ambassador
Bill Richardson.
In his letter, Udall included a poll he took in June of 1997.
Even though it came from his campaign and could be slightly biased,
the numbers are impressive and from a reputable pollster. In the
Democratic primary trial heat, Tom Udall gains 43 percent of those
polled, and his main Democratic opponent, Corporation Commissioner
Eric Serna, gets 16 percent (32 percent of voters remain undecided).
More interesting than these results, though, are the numbers testing
the candidates' name recognition and their favorability among
voters.
Udall was recognized by 92 percent of those surveyed, while Congressman
Redmond only scored 87 percent. Udall also received a positive
rating from 54 percent of voters. Redmond and Serna were far behind
with 27 percent each. Finally, and most importantly, was the negative
impression voters had of Eric Serna and Bill Redmond. Those having
a negative impression of Serna were 33 percent of the sample,
while 27 percent had a negative impression of Redmond. (Udall
had only 13 percent.) This is bad news for Redmond and Serna.
Once a voter has a negative impression of you, it is very hard
to turn that around to a positive. Redmond and Serna have a tough
road ahead of them.
This is all an effort by the Udall campaign to set Udall apart
as the clear front-runner. By doing this, Udall may scare other
Democrats out of the race and come out of the primary as the obvious
winner. Udall is clearly trying to promote himself as the only
Democrat who can beat Redmond. It's only one year from the 1998
elections, and already the battle lines are being drawn.
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