Pat Buchanan's Presidential Run Worries GOP
By Jack Moczinski
MARCH 22, 1999:
Two weeks ago Pat Buchanan, conservative commentator and former
aide to Republican presidents, entered the race for the Republican
presidential nomination in 2000. Buchanan has never been a shrinking
violet, and he will certainly bring some excitement to the presidential
race. In his two previous runs for president, he was pictured
wearing a coonskin cap, carrying a peasant's pitchfork and spreading
his message of economic isolationism and American conservatism.
His bombast is as legendary as is his dislike for moderate Republicans
and Bill Clinton. He also has the reputation as an alley fighter--earned
when he surprised President George Bush by beating him in the
1992 Republican Party primary in New Hampshire.
You may think that an aggressive, principled Republican would
capture the heart of Republicans around the nation, right? Not
really. To Republican strategists in Washington and around the
land concerned about winning the presidency in 2000, no one causes
late night sweats and nail biting more than Pat Buchanan.
Republican leaders in the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House and in governors'
offices have tried to move the Republican Party more toward the
middle of the ideological spectrum. They hoped that they could
escape the characterization of their party as consisting of "right-wing
extremists." The Clinton impeachment did not help that image,
and moderate Republicans have tried to shy away from that label.
At a recent Republican conference, Christine Todd Whitman, Republican
governor of New Jersey, decried the right wing of the party.
Moderates believe that a middle of the road conservative who could
talk about issues like tax cuts would be best to challenge the
assumed Democratic nominee, Vice President Al Gore. They found
their ideal candidate for the Presidency in Texas Gov. George
W. Bush. The younger Bush has astronomical approval ratings, has
a presidential aura and a history of attracting both Democratic
and Republican votes.
But Pat Buchanan and far right conservatives crashed the moderates'
party. Insiders thought Bush would easily roll over many of the
unproved conservative Republicans in the field. But Buchanan,
who has run twice for the presidency and has run strongly at times,
is a force for Bush to reckon with. In the eyes of socially conservative
Republicans, Bush can't hold a candle to Buchanan, especially
when it comes to favorite conservative issues like abortion.
These conservatives are an important bunch in the presidential
primaries. Those who vote in Republican primaries tend to be more
conservative than those who vote in general elections. They tend
to be the party faithful, and they demand a lot from the candidates.
That's important in presidential primaries. The first three primary
states, in order, are New Hampshire, Iowa and California. New
Hampshire and Iowa are traditionally conservative states and small
enough that someone like Buchanan can operate without a lot of
funds. California would look more favorable to Bush due to the
fact that it takes a lot of money to run a race in California.
But Bucahanan should be optimistic about doing well in California--the
California Republican Party recently elected a conservative, pro-life
party chair over his moderate, pro-choice opponent.
Buchanan's strategy must be to beat Bush in both Iowa and New
Hampshire and try to gain momentum for California and fare well
there. By that time, if other, lesser candidates are out of the
race and Buchanan and Bush are left alone, no doubt the race for
the Republican nomination will be about the difference in philosophies
between the moderate and conservative wings of the party.
Bush's people realize this. They've already begun to change his
campaign message that he used in his 1998 Governor's race. At
that time, he preached the politics of inclusion and avoided all
statements relating to traditional conservative social issues,
like those about choice, religion and family. Now his strategists
have begun talking about exactly those issues, using conservative
buzzwords like "values" and "morality."
If Bush does win the Republican nomination and does so by catering
to the right wing of his party, he may have a hard time moving
back to the center to challenge Gore. Although tides can change,
there is very little wrong in the public's mind with the Clinton/Gore
agenda, making it difficult for Bush to offer something better
than what America has, or convincing them there's something wrong
with what they've got.

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